Poster: Student Poster Session A (In Person Only) on Sunday, August 3, 2025, 4:50 PM
Room: Metcalf Small Ballroom
Thread: Learning and Teaching
Duration: 40 minutes
Chair: Jack Mercer
Support: Jelili Adebiyi
Understanding the Mechanisms Driving the Starvation Cycle in Commercial Nonprofits
Presenter: Ricardo Chavelas Manzo
Nonprofits fall into feedback structures limiting their growth. As they prioritize program over overhead expenses to meet donors' expectations, the expectation is exacerbated over time (the well-known nonprofit starvation cycle). The behavior above explains donative nonprofits' behavior. Commercial nonprofits (which provide services for a fee) are known to fall into this cycle despite non-existent donor influence. We seek to identify the mechanisms leading to these feedback structures for commercial nonprofits. We ground our research in empirical evidence by employing a semi-structured interview with nonprofit managers at a major foodbank network in Latin America. The interviews provide the qualitative basis for the conceptualization and formulation stages of the systems dynamics modeling. We extend the literature on nonprofit operations management and seek to identify the mechanisms, dynamics, and causal structures leading to growth or stagnation in commercial nonprofit organizations. Semi-structured interviews are underway but are expected to conclude at the end of April so that the results can be shared with the conference audience. We claim that nonprofit organizations fall into vicious cycles influenced by feedback structures. Using systems dynamics, this research aims to deepen our understanding and contribute to the decision-making theory in nonprofit settings. We seek to provide managerial insights into the mechanisms leading them to growth or stagnate and practical advice on how to escape the nonprofit starvation cycle.
Addressing Gender-Based Violence in Universities: How to reduce violence, survivor trauma, and hold perpetrators accountable
Presenter: Rai-Ching Yu
Gender-based violence is a prevalent problem on college campuses and has great impact students’ academic performance, physical and mental health, and overall well-being. While there are currently numerous ideas and initiatives to address gender-based violence, it is difficult to understand which one(s) are effective, and to what extent. Title IX offices specifically are one approach in Universities, currently required by law, to support survivors of gender-based violence, yet in effect Title IX procedures retraumatizes survivors and does not lead to justice and accountability. I built a systems dynamics model to understand to what extent various policies would reduce violence and survivor trauma, while providing justice and accountability. The results suggest that improving the Title IX procedures on its own will not suffice; a holistic approach that also involves trauma reduction services and cultural change is necessary.
Toward a Theory of the Evolution of the Global Political Economy: How Capital & Labor Interact to Co-Create & Distribute Wealth
Presenter: Garry Piepenbrock
This paper explores how wealth is created and distributed within and between nations, and it develops a simple political-economic model which shows that including capital and labor, not just as factors of production, but as political-economic institutions which interact to co-create and distribute wealth, can improve on an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital, and provide an improved explanation of OECD cross-country variation. A quantitative system dynamics simulation model of macro political economies is constructed which captures labor tolerance to inequality and capital sensitivity to redistributive tax. This will draw on the existing economics and political science theoretical literatures and empirical datasets. The parameters which capture capital and labor interactions are estimated using data from the median voter theory and tax elasticities respectively. The resulting system of nonlinear differential equations are simulated numerically. Nations which have high labor tolerance to inequality and low capital sensitivity to redistributive tax have the highest growth rates and the highest inequality. Conversely, nations which have low labor tolerance to inequality and high capital sensitivity to redistributive tax have the lowest growth rates and the lowest inequality. ‘Off-diagonal’ nations include the US (high labor tolerance and high capital sensitivity) and Japan (low labor tolerance and low capital sensitivity). This paper aims to contribute to macroeconomic theory of growth by complementing the Solow and Romer models with a political-economic causal structure which captures the redistributive actions between capitalists and laborers. This paper therefore hopes to explain more cross-country variation in wealth and output among advanced OECD nations. 2025 Nobel Prize laureates Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson referred to such modelling of institutions as the “Holy Grail” of political economy research.
Balancing Forest Ecosystem Services under Climate Change - A Multi-Model Approach
Presenters: Kelechi Ibeh, Austin Himes, Allyson Beall King
Forests cover 31% of Earth’s land and provide essential ecosystem services (ES), but are increasingly threatened by climate change and natural disturbances. Conventional management often prioritizes economic benefits over long-term ecological sustainability. This study investigates temporal dynamics of ES (timber production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation) under various silvicultural interventions and environmental disturbances in Olympic Experimental State Forest(OESF). We aim to optimize balance amid economic outputs and ecological resilience to inform adaptive forest management strategies. We employ multi-model approach combining spatially-explicit LANDIS-II model with STELLA system dynamics. LANDIS-II simulates forest succession, disturbances, and management over 100-years across 16-watersheds assessing short-(0-25 years) and long-term (26-100years) impacts. STELLA model incorporates LANDIS-II outputs and socio-economic factors to explore system-wide effect and feedback loops. We examine silvicultural regimes (intensive, none, multiscale) under CMIP6 climate-scenarios, drawing upon extensive literature and data from OESF and FIA toinform ES metrics. We anticipate that our approach will yield several key insights: (1) revelation of complex feedback loops between forest structure, biodiversity, carbon storage, and economic outputs, with potential tipping points under extreme climate and disturbance scenarios; (2) our results to suggest that gradient management approach emerges as promising strategy for balancing multiple objectives, including economic and ecological viability.
Modeling of Silvicultural Treatments: Impacts on Oak Regeneration and Carbon Sequestration
Presenters: Kelechi Ibeh, Allyson Beall King, Austin Himes
Uplаnd hardwood forests(UHFs) charаcterized by oаk-hickory and pine-mixed-hаrdwoods are environmentally, culturаlly and commercially significаnt and require successful regeneration of oаks to support biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, these forests fаce major challenges in oаk recruitment due to historical fire suppression, land-use chаnges, increased competition from shаde-tolerant species and deer browsing. This study applies modeling approach to evaluate silvicultural treatments' long-term impacts on oak regeneration/recruitment and carbon storage in Mississippi UHFs. We used STELLA to evaluate moderate and intensive thinning treatments (30% and 50%reduction in basal area respectively) implemented after 5years, and their effects on oak regeneration and carbon storage. Growth, mortality, recruitment, light availability, and carbon dynamics over 20years are ecological processes simulated. We used empirical data from UHFs to calibrate the model. Sensitivity analyses assessed model robustness, excluding stochastic disturbances (pests/extreme weather). Moderate thinning optimized trade-offs, enhancing oak-recruitment by 15%compared to control, with carbon storage recovering within 10years. Intensive thinning increased recruitment (30% > control), with substantial short-term carbon loss (~25%), and delayed recovery until year 15. Control preserved carbon-stocks and showed minimal oak recruitment due to limited light. Sensitivity analysis confirmed robust treatment response patterns across ecological conditions with high-mortality constrained carbon recovery, elevated growth, and reduced recruitment. Our findings support ecological forestry principles, highlighting importance of adaptive management in preserving forest resilience and carbon stocks.
Understanding the drivers and barriers to Post Occupancy Evaluation using systems thinking to improve building performance.
Presenter: Jaime Bainbridge
As we face the challenges of building performance amidst a climate emergency and ambitious UK Net Zero targets, a deeper understanding of operational buildings is essential for addressing the performance gap and fostering a culture of continuous improvement in the construction industry. Post occupancy evaluation (POE) remains an underutilised tool for closing this gap and enhancing building performance. To understand why POE is neglected this pilot project developed causal loop diagrams based on four semi structured interviews with an architect, estates manager, consultant and practitioner. The goal is to identify the drivers and barriers to POE from different perspectives. The eventual aim is to provide policy makers, particularly within the institutional and government domains to identify leverage points and approaches that can increase the use of POE. Preliminary finding indicate: For POE to deliver value, the recommendations must be implemented. Effective communication and innovative mechanisms in contracting, insurance and finance can enable POE. Mandating POE sharpens the focus and catalyse mechanisms to enable POE. The construction industry's short term delivery focused culture needs a shirt towards openness, patience and a willing ness to learn to foster continuous improvement. A broader spectrum of stakeholders in the building supply chain is required to get a full picture of the problem. Next steps, include undertaking more interviews followed by participatory workshops with stakeholders using CLDs to elicit strategies for policy.
Sustainable Systems Education & Social Innovation with AI Empowered Digital Platform: A Case Study from Taiwan Chapter
Presenter: Yi-En Ko
This study, titled “Sustainable Systems Education & Social Innovation with AI Empowered Digital Platform: A Case Study from Taiwan Chapter,” explores the integration of Education for Sustainable Development (ESD), systems thinking, and artificial intelligence to advance the real world project implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By utilizing system dynamics modeling, scenario simulation, and case-based analysis, the research proposes a strategic framework that links policy indicators, educational intervention, and integrated governance. Two demonstration cases are highlighted: the Nan’an Organic Farmland, which exemplifies green economy practices and local revitalization, and Yushan National Park, which serves as a sustainable education hub integrating Indigenous knowledge, outdoor learning, and digital platforms. The study also introduces an AI-empowered scenario planning tool designed to support interdisciplinary K-12 education, project-based learning, and systems thinking skill development. The research results suggest that when knowledge capital, human capital, and local capital is forming a reinforcing feedback loop, they collectively foster long-term sustainability, educational innovation, and regional development. The proposed model provides actionable strategies and system-based insights applicable to diverse global contexts seeking educational and social transformation for sustainable development. Keywords: AI, System Dynamics, Social Innovation, Education for Sustainable Development (ESD), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)