Modeling of Silvicultural Treatments: Impacts on Oak Regeneration and Carbon Sequestration

Sunday, August 3, 2025, 4:50 PM

Session: Student Poster Session A (In Person Only)

Uplаnd hardwood forests(UHFs) charаcterized by oаk-hickory and pine-mixed-hаrdwoods are environmentally, culturаlly and commercially significаnt and require successful regeneration of oаks to support biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, these forests fаce major challenges in oаk recruitment due to historical fire suppression, land-use chаnges, increased competition from shаde-tolerant species and deer browsing. This study applies modeling approach to evaluate silvicultural treatments' long-term impacts on oak regeneration/recruitment and carbon storage in Mississippi UHFs. We used STELLA to evaluate moderate and intensive thinning treatments (30% and 50%reduction in basal area respectively) implemented after 5years, and their effects on oak regeneration and carbon storage. Growth, mortality, recruitment, light availability, and carbon dynamics over 20years are ecological processes simulated. We used empirical data from UHFs to calibrate the model. Sensitivity analyses assessed model robustness, excluding stochastic disturbances (pests/extreme weather). Moderate thinning optimized trade-offs, enhancing oak-recruitment by 15%compared to control, with carbon storage recovering within 10years. Intensive thinning increased recruitment (30% > control), with substantial short-term carbon loss (~25%), and delayed recovery until year 15. Control preserved carbon-stocks and showed minimal oak recruitment due to limited light. Sensitivity analysis confirmed robust treatment response patterns across ecological conditions with high-mortality constrained carbon recovery, elevated growth, and reduced recruitment. Our findings support ecological forestry principles, highlighting importance of adaptive management in preserving forest resilience and carbon stocks.