Virtual Poster: SOC Poster Session (Virtual 2) (Virtual) on Thursday, July 16, 2026, 8:00 PM
Room: Virtual Room Main
Thread: Learning and Teaching
Duration: 60 minutes
Chairs: Jack Mercer, Ellen O'Neill
Support: Thomas Williams
What scales when alternatives scale: feedback dynamics in community-supported agriculture (CSA) in Germany
Presenters: William Ying, Zahra Shams Esfandabadi
Keywords: Environment and Resources
Community-based initiative (CBI) movements such as community-supported agriculture (CSA) are increasingly recognized as alternatives to dominant institutional arrangements, yet they face a key scaling problem. Specifically, initiatives that succeed often struggle to expand without compromising what made them distinctive. What is missing across existing literatures is a feedback-dynamic account of how scaling outcomes are actually produced. This paper investigates the feedback dynamics of scaling in CBI movements through a paired Gioia–qualitative system dynamics analysis of community-supported agriculture (CSA) movement in Germany, a translocal field of approximately 500 initiatives. Twelve semi-structured interviews informed a model of 32 factors, 55 directed connections, and 46 detected loops organized across three subsystems (organizational capacity, member space, movement infrastructure). Three findings emerge. First, retention dynamics drive scaling where roughly half of detected loops route through member departure, with growth-pursuing initiatives without retention infrastructure failing through a depletion-departure cascade. Second, cross-subsystem leverage points (community management, food partnerships) require sustained local development because they depend on situated judgment that resists clean codification. Third, intermediaries function as carriers of the slow stabilizing loops that unit-level actors cannot sustain, doing translation work that allows locally developed practice to travel.
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An Inquiry Model Prototype: Exploring Hooded Warbler Resilience Dynamics with Brown-Headed Cowbird Brood Parasitism
Presenter: John Silas Gajary
Keywords: Environment and Resources
This study employs computational simulation modeling to investigate the dynamics underlying the persistence of Hooded Warbler (Setophaga citrina) populations despite pronounced brood parasitism of their nests. Brood parasitism perpetrated by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) exacerbates population declines and complicates conservation challenges for a wide variety of passerine hosts. However, recent findings indicate that at least some populations of Hooded Warblers remain stable and relatively unscathed despite Brown-headed Cowbird brood parasitism. My presentation will describe a generative computational approach for understanding the putative resilience mechanisms that Hooded Warblers may use to escape the population-level consequences of brood parasitism. Additionally, I will present a prototype simulation model that draws on published studies on Brown-Headed Cowbird brood parasitism of Hooded Warbler nests to address the research question: How is it possible to observe the devastating effects of brood parasitism at the individual nest level, yet see Hooded Warblers thrive at the population level? Finally, I will discuss how the simulation model could aid in developing hypotheses and extending evidence-based empirical inquiry to Hooded Warbler populations more broadly, as well as to other, more vulnerable, passerine populations.
Developing an Approach for Integrating Multi-Stakeholder Causal Loop Diagrams: A Case Study of Agitation and Restraint Use in t
Presenters: A. Michael Ierardi, Turner Canty, Matthew Lootens, Bidisha Nath, Ambrose Wong, Riddhi Desai, Rebekah Heckmann, Nasim Sabounchi
Keywords: Methodology
Introduction/Problem Statement System dynamics (SD) thinking, including the development and presentation of causal loop diagrams (CLDs), offers an attractive methodology for identifying leverage points across complex systems. Not surprisingly, SD is therefore increasingly being used in public health research to identify such points of intervention to better address complex public health issues and promote positive health outcomes (Baugh Littlejohns et al., 2021; Uleman et al., 2024). Addressing these complex problems requires diverse perspectives from various stakeholders. Group model building (GMB) allows investigators to efficiently capture and visualize the mental models of these stakeholders as CLDs. However, where multiple GMB sessions are conducted across different stakeholder groups, limited methodological guidance currently exists on how to systematically combine the separate CLDs into a single integrated model. In response to this gap, Ryan et al. (2021) proposed several approaches for integrating CLDs, including triangulation, grounded theory, and synthesis. These approaches do not, however, provide the practical guidance investigators need to actually merge CLDs (Rajah & Kopainsky, 2025). Rajah & Kopainsky (2025) therefore recently proposed practical steps for integrating CLDs while emphasizing that the process should not rely only on combining visual diagrams, but should also consider the narratives shared by GMB participants to minimize unintentional reinterpretation of the CLDs by modelers during integration. This extended abstract describes an ongoing effort to integrate CLDs developed from separate stakeholder groups involved in a study investigating the complex dynamics of the emergency department (ED) at a major university hospital in Connecticut and their influence on patient agitation, workplace violence, restraint use, and staff burnout. While individual CLDs provide valuable insight into stakeholder-specific perspectives, combining the CLDs is necessary to better understand dynamics across the ED. Existing literature on CLD integration informed our approach, particularly the synthesis approach described by Ryan et al. (2021), the novel qualitative systems exploration model by Hulme et al. (2026), along with Rajah & Kopainsky’s (2025) emphasis on basing CLD integration decisions in participant discussions and narratives, rather than relying only on researcher interpretation of the diagrams themselves. Overall, this work aims to contribute practical guidance for transcript-informed integration of stakeholder-generated CLDs in participatory SD research. Background Several GMB sessions were conducted with different ED stakeholder groups, including attending physicians, resident physicians, nurses and technicians, security personnel, and patients with lived experience. Participants discussed factors related to patient agitation, workplace violence, restraint use, and staff burnout within the ED. Discussions were guided by several facilitators with SD and GMB expertise. Sessions were recorded and transcribed in Dedoose, a mixed-methods software program (Version 10.0.59, SocioCultural Research Consultants, LLC, Redondo Beach, CA, USA). Separate CLDs were developed for each stakeholder group to capture how each group understood the system and its underlying feedback structures. Preliminary CLDs produced during the GMB sessions were further refined by the research team upon review of the stakeholder-specific transcripts. A total of 8 CLDs were created. CLDs were initially developed in Vensim® PLE (Version 10.3.2, Ventana Systems, Inc., Harvard, MA, USA) and later transferred to Stella Architect (Version 4.1.1, isee systems, Inc., Lebanon, NH, USA) to take advantage of features that improved feedback loop identification and tagging. Current Status The attending physician and resident physician CLDs were first developed individually, including identification and preliminary naming of the most relevant and interpretable feedback loops within each CLD. All identified feedback loops from the attending physician CLD were then transferred into a new CLD. Feedback loops from the resident physician CLD were then added to this combined CLD. Some areas of overlap between the two stakeholder groups were straightforward to integrate due to similar variables and feedback structures. However, other loops required merging or slight revision of variables and causal relationships to better align overlapping concepts across the two CLDs. Throughout this process, we repeatedly referenced the original GMB transcripts to confirm that revisions and merged relationships remained consistent with the stories and experiences that participants described during the sessions, consistent with the recommendations from Rajah & Kopainsky (2025). An inductive coding process was then used to organize related feedback loops into broader thematic groupings. Preliminary loop names served as an initial guide, but loop names and themes were refined iteratively throughout the coding process. These thematic groupings were then visually distinguished within the combined CLD using color coding to improve interpretability and highlight related structures across the combined model (Figure 1). Notably, four similar themes emerged across both GMB sessions, including (1) ED burnout and turnover culture, (2) ED staffing constraints and resulting operational pressures, (3) patient agitation and restraint use in the ED, and (4) ED staff safety shaped by violence prevention and team dynamics. In an earlier iteration of the resident physician CLD, staff safety influenced by violence prevention and team dynamics were initially envisioned as two separate themes. However, attending physicians discussed these concepts in a more interconnected manner, frequently linking team dynamics, workplace violence prevention efforts, and perceptions of staff safety within the same feedback structures. As a result, these concepts were ultimately combined into a single integrated theme within the merged CLD. Additionally, a fifth theme related to trust and empathy as drivers of ED burnout and patient agitation emerged only within the resident physician CLD, reflecting residents’ recognition of interpersonal dynamics as important contributors to both patient and staff outcomes. Although this theme was only identified within the resident physician CLD, its related variables and relationships appeared across feedback loops present within the four other themes, becoming deeply interwoven throughout the integrated model (Figure 1), and ultimately supporting its retention as a distinct theme (Ryan et al., 2021). Next Steps Next steps include refining and integrating CLDs from the remaining stakeholder groups, specifically nurses, technicians, security personnel, and patients, using the methodology that we have developed. Following full integration, the combined CLD will likely undergo an iterative refinement process, adapting current guidance (Hulme et al., 2026; Rajah & Kopainsky, 2025; Ryan et al., 2021) to further simplify the model and identify the most important variables, feedback loops, and system themes contributing to patient agitation, workplace violence, restraint use, and staff burnout in this ED setting. Further, transparency in CLD development is much needed and for GMB sessions in particular, the process used to synthesize group input should be thoroughly discussed (Jalali & Beaulieu, 2024). This discussion should also transparently describe the efforts undertaken to integrate various CLDs, as necessary. As such, we also intend to further document and refine the CLD integration methodology described herein. By further refining and documenting this CLD integration process, this work will improve transparency and reproducibility in participatory SD studies involving multiple stakeholder-generated CLDs.
Green Growth Narratives in Engineering Codes of Conduct
Presenter: Natalie Yeap
Keywords: Environment and Resources
Green growth, characterised by environmentally sustainable economic growth, has emerged as a dominant force in sustainability discourse, influencing policymaking in the UK and internationally. This project seeks to assess the role of green growth in engineering practice through the lens of system dynamics. Causal loop diagrams expressing the narratives found in literature that support and criticise green growth are developed through a well-established coding methodology. This insight into the narratives present in green growth literature is compared with Professional Engineering Institutions’ codes of conduct (also called codes of ethics), revealing overlaps in attitudes towards innovation, economic factors and sustainability strategies. Evidence that supports and undermines the feasibility of green growth in UK engineering is discussed and alternative policies are proposed based on a framework of leverage points. The findings of this research suggest that engineering codes of conduct must be updated to reflect a broader perspective on the environment beyond its role as a provider of economic inputs.
Modelling the Risk–Cost Trap: A System Dynamics Approach to Declining Productivity in Pharmaceutical R&D
Presenters: Grace Beirne, Maximiliano Udenio Castro
Keywords: Health
Pharmaceutical drug development is characterised by extreme costs, lengthy timelines, and low success rates, with only ~10% of compounds entering clinical trials reaching approval. These conditions create a self-reinforcing trap: risk aversion diverts capital toward safer, lower-value projects, suppressing investment in innovative candidates and perpetuating declining R&D productivity. Structural discontinuities — valleys of death — further fragment the pipeline across academic, biotech, and industry actors with misaligned incentives. This study presents a system dynamics model integrating six subsystems (drug discovery, preclinical development, Phases I–III, regulatory approval, patient dynamics, and spending dynamics) in Stella Architect. Development combined semi-structured expert interviews with literature-based parameterisation; calibration uses differential evolution against published data on R&D expenditure, attrition, and approval timelines. The model structure is complete and calibration is underway, with sensitivity analysis and stakeholder validation to follow.
Does Facilitation Style Shape Causality? A Comparative Reflection on Two Participatory Causal Loop Diagramming Sessions on PhD
Presenter: Beste Gün Aslan
Keywords: Methodology
Participatory Group Model Building (GMB) relies on structured interaction between a facilitation team and stakeholders to elicit and represent shared mental models as system diagrams. Within this tradition, causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are widely used to make feedback structures explicit and to support collective learning about system dynamics. A core methodological assumption is that facilitation helps participants surface causal relationships that already exist in their mental models — rather than introducing structure that was not there to begin with. This abstract questions that assumption. We present a comparative reflection on two CLDs produced in a single workshop on PhD wellbeing, conducted at NOVA FCT on December 2024. The two diagrams were generated by separate groups working on an identical problem definition—"How do our PhDs impact our wellbeing?"—but under markedly different facilitation styles. The resulting structural differences between the two maps raise a question that is rarely foregrounded in the GMB literature: to what extent does facilitation style not merely assist the emergence of causality, but actively co-produce it?
Hybrid Simulation Modelling to Support Net-Zero Healthcare Decision-Making for Green Operating Theatre Interventions
Presenters: Melika Rezaei Chayjan, Susan Howick
Keywords: Health
Climate change creates a dual challenge for healthcare systems: responding to climate-related health impacts while reducing their own environmental footprint. This is particularly relevant in surgical care, where operating theatres are major contributors to hospital emissions, waste, and energy use. Green theatres aim to reduce environmental harm while maintaining patient safety and care quality, but their implementation involves trade-offs between environmental impact, cost, feasibility, and clinical priorities. This early-stage research focuses on green operating theatres within NHS Lanarkshire and aims to investigate how System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modelling could support the assessment and prioritisation of green theatre interventions. Current work includes ethics approval, document analysis, and two stakeholder interviews. Next steps include further interviews, causal loop diagram development, and conceptualisation of a future simulation model.