Poster: SOC Poster Session (Overflow) (In-person) on Monday, July 20, 2026, 11:00 AM
Room: Entresol 2
Thread: Learning and Teaching
Duration: 60 minutes
Chairs: Paula Goetz, Ellen O'Neill
Support: Özgün Çetinkaya
Cascading vulnerabilities and housing insecurity after disasters in Brazil
Presenters: Julia Marques Silva, Vinicius Picanço Rodrigues
Keywords: Public Policy
Recent disasters in Brazil have increasingly displaced vulnerable populations, triggering cascading effects that extend beyond the initial loss of housing. Rather than isolated events, disasters interact with pre-existing vulnerabilities, shaping dynamic trajectories of housing insecurity. This study aims to better understand these mechanisms and identify potential leverage points for intervention. Adopting a system dynamics perspective, the research develops a causal loop diagram (CLD) based on a qualitative, grounded theory-inspired approach, drawing on a structured review of the literature. The CLD is intended to map key interactions and feedback structures linking disasters, displacement, and vulnerability, supporting the analysis of cascading processes and the identification of potential leverage points. As a work in progress, the study focuses on building a coherent conceptual representation of the problem to inform subsequent analysis.
Borrowed Time: A New Archetype of Silent Fragility and an Interactive Policy Tool for Climate Adaptation
Presenters: Ambar ., Navarun Varma, Erica Udas
Keywords: Public Policy
Monitoring and evaluation frameworks for climate adaptation are built on linear Theory of Change logic, yet the social-ecological systems they assess are governed by feedback, accumulation, and delay. Programs generating positive early indicators simultaneously erode the adaptive capacity determining long-run welfare, a process invisible to standard monitoring until collapse is already underway. Existing frameworks cannot see the structural processes they most need to track.
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A conceptual model of transit-spurred gentrification in London
Presenter: Ellen O'Neill
Keywords: Public Policy
London is scoping major transit investments amid an acute housing shortage. Recent policy proposals treat transit as a precondition for new housing, but the policy environment around the line extension (i.e. planning permissiveness, affordability requirements, and build speed) determines whether the original community is preserved or displaced. This paper presents a minimal system dynamics model (five stocks, six flows) of transit-spurred gentrification in a single, hypothetical London neighborhood. The model tests three policy levers: transit extension delivery time, NPPF density reform, and affordable home share. Under status-quo parameters (10-year build, no NPPF reform, current Section 106 norms), the model produces 218 of 2,500 original residents (~9%) displaced over 20 years. Three scenario findings: 1) NPPF reform alone prevents displacement entirely; 2) strong affordability alone reduces displacement it by approximately one third; 3) cutting build time from 10 to 5 years alone increases displacement to 270. The model suggests delivery acceleration and planning permissiveness are conditionally complementary -- beneficial for the original community only when layered. Submitted as a work-in-progress for feedback on conceptualization and structure.
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A Community-Engaged Systems Approach to Safer Primary Healthcare Spaces for Rural LGBTQA+ Youth
Presenter: Katharina Engel
Keywords: Health
Robust evidence documents persistent health and social disparities affecting LGBTQA+ populations. However, most research focuses on adults and non-Australian contexts. Emerging Australian evidence indicates compounded inequities for rural LGBTQA+ youth, including limited access to safe quality healthcare. This study therefore applies a community-based system dynamics (CBSD) to co-design safer primary healthcare spaces (S-PHC-S) with rural LGBTQA+ youth in Western Victoria, Australia, and identify the dynamics shaping S-PHC-S. Rural LGBTQA+ youth aged 12-25 and system collaborators across Western Victoria will create a causal loop diagram of S-PHC-S in group model building workshops, which will be translated into a quantitative simulation model, informed by empirical data, a systematic review and further community engagement to test the dynamic hypothesis and strategies to improve the safety of PHC spaces. A preliminary reference mode of PHC safety was developed and recruitment began in February 2026 through trusted networks. By co-designing S-PHC-S through an innovative community-engaged systems approach, this project addresses LGBTQA+ healthcare disparities and provides guidance for community-informed systems change in healthcare while laying the groundwork for future community-engaged systems approaches with LGBTQA+ rural youth.
How Governance Design Shapes Primary Care Team Configuration: Insights from Stakeholder-Generated Causal Loop Diagrams
Presenters: Nicki Atkinson, Jean Spinks, Lisa Nissen, Sue McAvoy
Keywords: Health
Primary care reforms increasingly emphasise coordinated, team-based care, yet persistent fragmentation suggests that workforce configuration remains misaligned with population needs. We used Group Model Building (GMB) to explore potential system levers to enhance team-based primary care in Australia. A one-day GMB workshop (October 2025) involving ~45 consumers, clinicians, managers, researchers and system leaders generated causal loop diagrams (CLDs) representing perceived interactions shaping system behaviour and potential areas for intervention. Among the issues raised, governance emerged as a central influence on team-based care, acting as both an enabler and a constraint. Two CLDs surfaced distinct feedback structures. The Care Coordination Dynamics CLD depicted a fragile stabilising (balancing) loop, weakened by factors such as workforce shortages and funding caps. The Health Enabling Team Care CLD depicted reinforcing early intervention dynamics, with coordinated teams improving access, reducing demand and strengthening team functioning. Together, the CLDs show that under chronic system stress, care coordination often functions as a fragile coping mechanism, whereas when governance levers and enabling conditions align, team-based care can produce reinforcing improvements in capability, access and outcomes. Strengthening coordination roles, task authorisation pathways, funding arrangements, digital infrastructure and equity-oriented access offers opportunities to shift system behaviour toward more coherent and responsive primary care.
Adaptive capacity of community and local institutions during power outage
Presenter: Hanna Rutkovska
Keywords: Security Stability and Resilience
As power outages caused by the severe weather and conflicts grow more frequent, understanding how communities and institutions build adaptive capacity is critical. This study uses a causal loop diagram (CLD), developed within a PhD research project, to model how repeated outages shape resilience. The CLD captures two dynamics: repeated outages progressively building adaptive capacity through coping, learning, and social coordination; and excessive outages depleting resources, shifting recovery burdens onto institutions. Four feedback loops (two balancing, two reinforcing) represent interactions between community preparedness, social capital, institutional recovery, and governance quality. Adaptive capacity emerges as a dynamic, threshold-dependent process requiring coordinated responses.
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Understanding and Mitigating Impacts of Involuntary Psychiatric Hospitalization in the Context of Recent U.S. Policy Reforms
Presenters: Lena Schulhofer, Ellis Ballard, Morgan Shields, Lucy Regales, Grace Tyau, Mia Kouveliotes, Megan Neal, Junu Rana Magar Junu Rana Magar
Keywords: Health
Involuntary psychiatric hospitalization (IH) is increasingly used to manage serious mental illness and crisis in the U.S., particularly among vulnerable populations. Recent policies loosening commitment criteria cite protective benefits, yet emerging evidence suggests IH may worsen mental health, social risk, and readmission over time. A fundamental debate persists: eliminate IH entirely, or reduce its use and mitigate harm? System dynamics offers a framework for deeper structural analysis of this tension. Drawing on data from lived perspectives of crisis care quality, we facilitated three exploratory group model building sessions to test system dynamics' applicability to our research program. Sessions generated dynamic and feedback insights, a preliminary causal loop diagram (CLD), and policy lever analysis. We then conducted a literature review to iterate and validate a more parsimonious, empirically grounded CLD representing the salient mechanisms underlying IH's positive and negative impacts over time. The CLD depicts the revolving door dynamics of IH through the "fixes that fail" archetype — IH as a short-term solution to psychiatric and social risk that generates unintended consequences, exacerbating the original problem. Four salient reinforcing mechanisms were identified: institutional harm eroding trust and help-seeking; erosion of therapeutic alliance and non-compliance; exacerbated social vulnerability; and self-stigma intensifying social isolation. The CLD illustrates how IH has become endogenous to the system it helps perpetuate and lays the groundwork for measuring multi-level unintended consequences and identifying policy levers supporting long-term recovery and reduced reliance on coercive care. Next steps include transforming the CLD into a simulation model to test care pathways and policy strategies, and developing additional CLDs addressing community-based alternatives, peer support, and political will.
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Beyond Linear Pathways: A System Dynamics Conceptual Model of Post-Adoption Instability After Foster Care
Presenters: Sinko Wang, Saras Chung
Keywords: Psychology and Human Behavior
Post-adoption instability among children adopted from foster care has significant consequences for child well-being, families, and public systems. Yet variable-centered research inadequately explains how instability emerges through reciprocal interactions among child adversity, caregiver stress, commitment, and service response. This paper develops a system dynamics conceptual model using a causal loop diagram, synthesizing evidence across three layers: pre-permanency adversity, post-adoption family dynamics, and systemic responses. This conceptual model reveals eight reinforcing and two balancing feedback loops mapping how instability escalates, stabilizes, or shifts between formal and informal instability, highlighting leverage points for earlier, more flexible post-permanency support.
Exploring self-determined youth engagement in government decision-making through a systems lens
Presenter: Carina Mammone
Keywords: Psychology and Human Behavior
Mental wellbeing has been identified as a global health issue. Research findings suggest that young people are experience lower levels of mental wellbeing for longer periods of time. Concurrently, governments across Australia have begun recognising a need to include young people in decision-making that impacts them. However, research investigating youth wellbeing in these settings currently lacks consideration of youth wellbeing needs and motivations and is weakened by limited youth involvement. This study will apply a participatory system dynamics approach with young people (aged 16-30), state and local government officials and youth advocates across Victoria to create a causal loop diagram of youth engagement in government decision-making. Group model building workshops will follow a scoping review and interviews with government officials to map the system of youth engagement with government and identify opportunities to prioritise youth wellbeing and agency in approaches. This study is being conducted in partnership with the Victorian Department of Health (project sponsors). Since the partnership was established in July 2025, a collaborative approach has been undertaken to develop a study design, consideration of potential recruitment methods and opportunities, and drafting of the group model building data collection tools. This project is being designed to centre the voices of youth and foster meaningful collaboration between key stakeholders currently shaping approaches and opportunities for youth engagement with government. This study will be the first to use system dynamics methods to bring together government officials, youth advocates and young people to interrogate the system of youth engagement with government across Victoria and how it could better meet the needs of youth.
Management Overconfidence - a Workplace Story
Presenters: Christopher Gubberud Rindheim, Christina Gkini
Keywords: Psychology and Human Behavior
Overconfident leadership leads to profit loss and workplace problems. It is a problem that is not very visible or even wilfully ignored. There may be difficulty getting responsible entities to listen to the problem. The model showcases what happens in an organisation when the leadership makes poor decisions because of overconfidence in own abilities. Model objective is to explore various solutions and frameworks for implementing change within realistic boundaries. The resulting model reproduces targeted scenarios such as collapse and unhealthy oscillation. Policy analysis proves the only way to avoid the problem is to not initialise the model in the problem scenario. The problems stemming from abundant confidence is hurting both employees and employers. Understanding of the problem is needs to reach key people to implement change. Organisations run by humans are subject to human error. Future work should focus on embedding the behaviour more in literature.
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