Room: Virtual Room1
Duration: 120 minutes
Presenters: Dr Ben Matellini, Prof Ian Jenkinson, Robyn Pyne, Prof Trung Thanh Nguyen, Ramatu Abdulkadir
Purpose- Stockouts of medicines in public hospitals has led to treatment failures and loss of patients’ lives. This study aims to understand the dynamics of essential medicines stockout in public healthcare facilities in Nigeria and design policies to ensure the continuous supply of medication towards achieving Universal Health Coverage. Methodology: In-depth semi-structured interviews and elicitation workshops of five public healthcare facilities and other stakeholders were used in a system dynamic modelling method to model and simulate the drug revolving fund scheme at the network level. Findings: The insight from the simulation shows that even the smallest amount of medicine shrinkage can lead to decapitalization and collapse of the DRF scheme. The time to reconcile inventory delays replenishment of medicines leading to excess medicine inventory and expiries. Research limitations: The model boundary excludes patients and does not reflect the perception of end-users. The inclusion of other stakeholders like donors/partners could minimize such bias. Originality: This study is a unique approach of using in-depth interviews and elicitation workshops to understand the dynamic behaviour of medicine stockout at the network level of a public healthcare medicine delivery network in Nigeria. The study proposes policies to improve medicine availability.
Presenter: Sun Ho Hwang
Due to the increase of precipitation, there is an increasing interest to seek sustainable adaptation strategies in urban areas. Green infrastructure has received an increasing amount of attention as an adaptation strategy in order to reduce runoff that is occurred by the increase of precipitation and the impervious surface in urban areas. The city at Buffalo, which is experiencing an increasing amount of precipitation due to global warming has launched a rain check project by Buffalo Sewer Authority to install green infrastructure. There has been effort to install rain barrels at individual households. In order to increase the number of rain barrels starting from this point, the research question is to analyze the change of participants considering the word of mouth and the economic incentive and also analyze the effect on reducing runoff using a system dynamic analysis. The system dynamic analysis is used to consider the environmental, economic, and social perspective by involving different factors in the model. The expected result is to compare different scenarios with different tax incentive levels to find the scenario that meets the objective.
Presenter: Ebuwa Evbuoma-Fike
Farm work is one of the most dangerous occupations in the United States, and yet, the regulations governing child farm work are the least restrictive. Childhood agricultural injuries arise within a complex system of child labor and occupational health policy dynamics combined with broad data gaps and health disparities. System dynamics modeling offers an opportunity to guide policymaking and ultimately reduce the occurrence of injuries among children who participate in farm work. The researcher developed a simulation model of the childhood agricultural injury system, spanning occupational exposure and injury, fatality, and exodus from farm work. The model aims to help policymakers address this public health issue by supporting policy analysis and action, while operating with incomplete data on the drivers of injuries. In this paper, the researcher projects the effects of child labor and occupational health mechanisms to reduce occupational exposures, and the unintended consequences of policy interventions. Model simulations suggest that regulatory enforcement, injury reporting and exposure reduction attain the greatest reduction in injury rates. These findings offer agencies like the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, US Department of Labor, and US Environmental Protection Agency an opportunity to prioritize these interventions within existing regulatory frameworks.
Presenter: Dehui Wang
In the past ten years, China High-speed Railway has achieved a great success on construction and development, according to the research report from world bank 2019. However, the report also indicates the quite low EIRR (8%) and FIRR (6%). The achievement is guaranteed by a continual large invest of China railway company and China Government assistance. In this project, we use SD model to catch main structure which covers “Invest-Construction-Operation” and how government assistance works with the construction and operation of High-speed railway. The dynamics of structure indicates the significant meaning both and problems from government assistance. Firstly, in construction stage, abundant invest and fast construction would lead to overshooting which causes resource waste and social problems. Then in operation stage, the structure shows how China government realize the positive effect of high-speed railway to its most to economics and livelihood with financing assistance. On the other hand, the government intervene would also lead to an independent management problem to railway company. Therefore, based on the structure analysis and simulation result from SD model, the paper would give a detailed demonstration process for these findings in project and try to give a constructive proposal.
Presenters: Christine Tang, Saeed Langarudi, Raafat Zaini
In this paper, we aim to develop a systematic method to aid modelers in designing a survey (or interview) to quantify variables in order to create and validate reference modes. We call our method the “REference MOde DEvelopment ALgorithm” (REMODEAL). We present an overview of REMODEAL and delve into our three graph process to enable modelers to check reference modes for internal consistency and inter-participant consistency.
Presenter: Portia Mupfumira
Smart Cities are complex systems as highlighted by Sanders & Sanders, (2004) and Moon, (2016), that require an understanding of their complexity and dynamics. Thus, selection of a Systems Thinking methodology to aid decision-making processes in smart cities implementation. This approach was once used by Das, (2013) through system dynamics modelling to illustrate the dynamicity and parameter influence on each other to assist policy interventions for developing smart cities in South Africa. On the other hand, Monasterolo et al., (2014) applied a hybrid system dynamic and agent-based methodology for simulating complex adaptive systems for sustainability analysis, highlighting that the emergent modelling framework increase modelling accuracy and computational efficiency. The first phase is problem conceptualisation for problem definition, objective decomposition, setting of the scope, and assumptions. A comprehensive smart cities framework literature will be carried out to determine the key components of smart cities to scope the research. Parameters, scope, and assumptions will determine the input and output data of the system. This in turn will offer a platform for ‘interaction points’ identification followed by the hybrid conceptual model development. A rigorous iterative process will be done verifying and validating the developed model followed by experimentation and using case study data.
Presenter: Nashon Adero
Rapid advances in automation, big data, mine surveying and mapping technologies have created a compelling research motivation and policy justification for ensuring environmentally responsible mining. Recent developments in East Africa have given mineral resources a new strategic significance. Mineral resource exploration efforts are increasing, complete with dedicated government agencies in charge of mining as a new priority sector for economic growth. Mining sector governance is fast gaining currency and policy relevance as a result. Like most countries in East Africa, Kenya has a young and growing mining sector. Kenya’s Mining Act of 2016 is, however, reputed for being the most modern and progressive mining legislation in Africa. The traditional focus of mine planners and investors has been pronounced on short-term project-level optimisation of operations and socioeconomic outcomes. The result has been an excess of fragmentary approaches against a growing deficiency of integrated decision support models based on spatial scales that can effectively address strategic planning needs with a full implementation of systems thinking for a shared understanding of community-wide feedbacks and impacts. To address this growing gap, this case study used spatial and factual data on a mineral-rich county in Kenya to develop a system dynamics model for mine planning.