From Aral Sea Shrinkage to Rising Respiratory Illness in Uzbekistan: A System Dynamics Approach 1950–present

Thursday, July 16, 2026, 5:45 AM

Session: SOC Poster Session (Virtual 1) (Virtual)

The Aral Sea, once the third largest inland lake in the world, has been shrinking since the 1950s due to large-scale Soviet irrigation projects that diverted the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers (Anchita et al., 2021; Gaybullaev et al., 2012). This environmental degradation has increased the area of exposed seabed, which contributes to higher levels of air and water pollution that are often associated with increasing respiratory illness, such as asthma and bronchitis, in Uzbekistan and the rest of Central Asia. While there is literature on the environmental and health consequences of the Aral Sea Crisis, few studies have looked at the intersection of these issues from a dynamic systems approach. This project develops a system dynamics model to explore the relationship among Aral Sea water volume, exposed seabed area, pollution exposure, and respiratory illness over a century period. This model aims to illustrate how large-scale environmental degradation can worsen ecology and health of Uzbekistan. By linking environmental change to health outcomes, this work serves as a discussion piece to understand how man-made disasters, such as the loss of a sea, could impact the health of millions and inform future discussions on the environmental-health interactions in Central Asia.